U.S. Supreme Court conservatives lean toward allowing transgender sports bans

The U.S. Supreme Court conservatives largely leaned toward upholding state bans on transgender women and girls competing in women's school sports during oral arguments on January 12-13, 2026. These arguments addressed challenges to laws in Idaho and West Virginia from transgender athletes Lindsay Hecox and B.P.J.

Case Background

Idaho's 2020 law and West Virginia's 2021 law classify school sports teams by biological sex at birth, barring transgender females from women's teams to ensure fairness and safety. Lower courts blocked enforcement: the 9th Circuit ruled Idaho's law violates equal protection and involves invasive verification, while the 4th Circuit found West Virginia's violates Title IX.

Arguments from States

States argued the laws classify by biological sex, which correlates with athletic advantages like muscle mass and lung capacity, preserving opportunities for cisgender women without discriminating on gender identity. Idaho Solicitor General Alan Hurst and West Virginia's Michael Williams emphasized that denying exceptions for transgender athletes treats all males equally.

Conservative Justices' Views

Justices like Brett Kavanaugh, Clarence Thomas, and Amy Coney Barrett expressed support, citing fairness in women's sports, scientific uncertainty, and no need for exceptions even with hormone therapy. Kavanaugh noted half of states allow transgender participation and urged caution against nationalizing the issue; Thomas compared it to a weak male athlete seeking women's teams. The Trump administration backed the states, arguing reasonable fit under intermediate scrutiny.

Potential Outcomes

A majority of the 6-3 conservative court appeared ready to reinstate the bans, though liberals sought narrow rulings or dismissal of one case; a decision is expected by June 2026 and could impact 25+ similar state laws. Justice Neil Gorsuch showed some divergence, questioning transgender discrimination history but leaning toward states on Title IX.