Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner: Serbian legend will have to make his own luck in Australian Open semifinal

Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner

At 38 and two years removed from his last Major, the Serb has a fortunate path to the final—if he can solve the player who's beaten him five straight times

A visibly irritated Novak Djokovic bristled at a question about chasing the next generation. The timing couldn’t have been worse—he’d just survived on a lucky break, advancing only because Lorenzo Musetti retired injured while leading by two sets.

When asked if pursuing Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz mirrored his early years chasing Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, the Serb snapped back. “So I’m always the chaser? I find it disrespectful that you miss out on what happened in between. There’s probably about a 15-year period where I was dominating the Grand Slams. I don’t feel like I’m chasing. I’m creating my own history.”

Touche. A record-extending 25th Major beckons at Melbourne Park. But time is running out for the 38-year-old to prove he remains a present-day force rather than just a monument to past glory. Two years have passed since his last Major title—a drought magnified by heavy defeats to the new guard at tennis’s biggest stages.

Yet here he stands with an extraordinary opportunity. Djokovic has complained all 2025 about his body betraying him at crucial moments. But he’s played just two hours of tennis in six days, hasn’t won a set, and sits two matches from rewriting his legacy once more. Two decades of excellence have taught him how to dust off poor performances and come out firing.

The problem? Who’s waiting in Friday’s semifinal.

RAZOR-THIN EDGE

Sinner dominates on hard courts. He’s won their last five meetings, dropping zero sets in the last three. But Djokovic has found a sliver of opportunity: returning second serves.

The Serb has won 58.5% of second-serve return points this tournament. Sinner has held just 55.4% of second-serve points. Marginal, yes—but potentially decisive.

The Italian’s serve is powerful and reliable, but he can turn tentative when his first serve misfires repeatedly. Alcaraz exploited this last year at the US Open, going aggressive on second serves to claim the title. Djokovic’s elite returning puts him in position to do the same.

BASELINE SCRAMBLE

Djokovic started this tournament sharp. That fell apart Wednesday against Musetti in one area: longer rallies.

Not a stamina issue—this was tactical. Musetti’s one-handed backhand threw slices and down-the-line loopers into exchanges, elongating points before striking. Djokovic took the bait, trying to end rallies early with overly aggressive winners. He sprayed 23 of his 27 unforced errors in rallies lasting more than five shots.

This complicates things against Sinner, who excels in baseline warfare. His wiry frame uncoils with fury when the ball enters his strike zone, repetitively pounding powerful groundstrokes during metronomic exchanges.

The antidote? Disruption. Players like Alcaraz, Alexander Bublik and Grigor Dimitrov have caught Sinner off-guard with unpredictable patterns—drop shots, net forays, risky down-the-line cuts. Make him move vertically, not horizontally. Break his rhythm.

Djokovic has the tools and the tactical intelligence to execute this. Whether it works against a peaking player on his favorite surface is another question entirely.

BY THE NUMBERS

5-0: Sinner leads the recent head-to-head, winning their last five matches and dropping no sets in their last three.

58.5%: Djokovic’s second-serve return winning percentage this Australian Open. Sinner has held 55.4% of points behind his second serve—a slim margin that could prove decisive.