Australian Open 2026: Aryna Sabalenka favourite but faces Swiatek, U.S. threats

Aryna Sabalenka

The 2026 Australian Open, set to begin on Sunday, January 18, at Melbourne Park, is shaping up as a highly competitive women's singles event. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka enters as the clear favorite, aiming for her third title in four years after triumphs in 2023 and 2024, but she faces stiff challenges from Poland's Iga Swiatek and a strong contingent of American players. Sabalenka's recent form is formidable, having won the Brisbane International on January 11 with a dominant performance, extending her Australian winning streak to 34 of her last 36 matches on the continent. However, the draw includes potential roadblocks, with Sabalenka opening against Sloane Stephens and possibly facing tougher tests later.

Sabalenka's Path to Glory

The Belarusian powerhouse, known for her aggressive baseline game and powerful serve, has been in peak condition. After securing the US Open title in 2025, she kicked off 2026 with a ruthless 6-0, 6-1 win over Cristina Bucsa in Brisbane, matching her fastest tour-level victory at 47 minutes. Experts highlight her consistency and mental toughness as key factors, with many predicting her to defend her Brisbane success and push deep in Melbourne. Sabalenka herself has expressed confidence, drawing from doubles experience to refine her net play and returns.

Key Challengers: Swiatek and the American Surge

World No. 2 Iga Swiatek remains a major threat, despite her best Australian Open result being a semifinal in 2022. The Polish star, who won Wimbledon in 2025, has an unbeaten streak since late 2025 and recently dismissed the need for mixed-gender exhibitions, emphasizing the strength of women's tennis. Her placement in a different half of the draw from Sabalenka and Gauff boosts her chances for a deep run.

The United States boasts a formidable group, led by defending champion Madison Keys, who claimed her first Grand Slam at the 2025 Australian Open. Coco Gauff, ranked No. 3, reached the semifinals in 2025 and gave Sabalenka her toughest test that year. Amanda Anisimova, enjoying a career-best 2025 with multiple finals, emerges as a dark horse at No. 4, while Jessica Pegula (No. 6) adds depth with her steady play. Two-time champion Naomi Osaka also looms as a potential spoiler.